Early Voting Results in Miami, Tampa Bay and Jacksonville Look Strong for Donald Trump
The ex-President could be headed for the biggest Republican win in the state since 1988
Florida’s no longer the pivotal swing state it once was. But that doesn’t mean it should be ignored on election day. There are still bellwether areas in the state that can give us clues for how the rest of the country might go. The early vote results in Tampa Bay (Hillsborough, Pinellas), Miami (Miami Dade), and Duval (Jacksonville) are very encouraging for Trump.
The table above reflects the final 2020 vote versus the early vote + mail in vote in 2024, so it’s an apples to oranges comparison in that we don’t know how independents will break. And voting patterns may be very different in the state this year compared to the pandemic election, when Republicans largely voted on election day in person. Still, the shift is pretty striking. Trump went from minus 7 in Miami to plus 3, a 10-point swing. He went from minus 1 in Pinellas County (St. Petersburg + outlying areas) to plus 5, a 6-point swing. Voters in Tampa shifted from Biden plus 7 to Trump plus 1, an 8-point shift. And in Jacksonville, Trump went from minus 4 to plus 2, a six-point shift.
Before the pandemic, Democrats had a voter registration advantage in the state. Now, there are no Democrats in a statewide office in Florida and Republicans hold a registration advantage of almost 1 million voters. Even if independents deliver a victory for Harris in Tampa Bay, Miami and Jacksonville, it looks like Trump will prevail big statewide. He won Florida by just over 1% in 2016 and a bit more than 3% in 2020. Before that, Obama won the state in ’08 and ’12, and George W. Bush won twice, by 537 votes in 2000 and by 5% in 2004. Trump could eclipse Bush’s 2004 win margin and is likely to earn the biggest Republican margin in the state since George H.W. Bush crushed Michael Dukakis by 22 points in 1988.